LRQA COP16 Blog, The summary
17th December 2010 by Andy Ritchie
By Andrew Ritchie, Climate Change Services Manager, LRQA
In this final blog Andrew sums up his thoughts, the good and the bad outcomes and the areas which are still under discussion.
So, the dust has finally settled and we’ve had a chance to pick through the bones of the COP16 climate change negotiations at Cancun to identify what it all means.
In an attempt to provide a clear indication of our thoughts on each of the main points, we have applied a very scientific system of analysis, as follows:
- Good = Good news
- Out = Jury is still out
- Bad = Not good news
Bad
A Kyoto Protocol second commitment period has not been agreed because Canada, Japan and Russia refused to agree to targets because the new document did not include China and the US. There is therefore currently no legally binding agreement from 2013. Parties to the Kyoto Protocol have agreed to continue their negotiations with the aim of ensuring that there is no gap between the first and a second commitment period (i.e. commencing 2013).
Good
The reduction targets of industrialised countries post 2012, whilst not legally binding, are ‘officially recognised’. The agreements require annual reporting from Annex 1 parties. The agreements now also require the development of low carbon development plans for industrialised countries.
Out
The actions of developing countries to reduce emissions are also ‘officially recognised’. A registry is to be established to record and match developing country mitigation actions to finance and technology support from industrialised countries. Both industrialised and developing countries are expected to put forward the same commitments submitted last year under the Copenhagen Accord. This will be far less than what is recognised as required.
Out
International emissions trading and the project based mechanisms of the Kyoto protocol (i.e. CDM and JI) will continue to be available to Annex 1 Parties to meet their emission limits. But a second commitment period is needed for this to progress beyond 2012. A separate agreement under wider UN talks, which include the US, agreed to consider establishing new market mechanisms next year while maintaining and building “upon existing mechanisms including those established under the Kyoto protocol.”
Good
Internationally supported mitigation actions will be subject to domestic and international MRV. Domestically supported mitigation actions will be subject to domestic MRV only. The detailed procedures for this are to be proposed.
Good
The agreements recognise the pledge of $30 billion from 2010 – 2012 from industrialised countries to support climate action in the developing world and the intention to raise $100 billion per year by 2020. These funds will flow through a new fund, the Green Climate Fund, the trustee for which will be the World Bank for the next 3 years.
Good
The carbon market is already seeing minor price increases, reportedly due to the positive message sent that there is a future for carbon markets and the Kyoto mechanisms of the CDM and JI.
Bad
COP17 in Durban is the last opportunity to agree either a second Kyoto commitment period or a new agreement if we are to ensure that there is no ‘gap’ in commitment periods.
Out
In this period of ‘limbo’, we will see further negotiations in the run up to COP17, but countries will be pushing ahead with their domestic, and/or bilateral actions and schemes and domestic MRV
Good
In the area of forestry, significant headway was made on a global mechanism for REDD. Developing countries have been requested to implement national plans in relation to deforestation, forest degradation, sustainable forest management and enhancement of stocks and to establish national forest monitoring systems. Annex 1 parties have been required to set forest management reference levels (baselines). It is expected that market based mechanisms for REDD will be discussed in depth at COP17.
So, a surprising number of Good marks, demonstrating, perhaps, that whilst the overall inability of the negotiating teams to reach a legally-binding agreement on emission reductions was the ‘headline-grabber’, there are definitely a few silver linings to be found on that particular cloud.
I guess we can only hope that the twelve months between now and COP17 in Durban, and the Durban event itself, build upon the modest successes of Cancun.
Andy’s South African Fact of the Day
With a population of almost 3.5 million, Durban is the largest city in the South African province of KwaZulu-Natal and the third largest city in the country. It is also the biggest city on the east coast of the African continent. The name derives from Zulu and means ‘bay’.
Andy’s Thought for the Day
I hope the people of South Africa are as pleasant and accommodating as the people of Mexico.
Visit LRQA website to see more blogs from Andy Ritchie from week two and blogs from Madlen King from week one.
Follow LRQA on Twitter @LRQA_CC_CSR or visit www.climate-change.lrqa.com
Andy Ritchie is the Group Environmental Products Manager for the